International transport: Free public transport
The topic of my master's thesis, which I wrote for Deutsche Bahn in 2013, is still topical: For issue 3/2014 of the magazine "Internationales Verkehrswesen" (IV) I was able to contribute a contribution on my heart thesis "Free Public Transport". At this point, i would like to thank the former colleagues of DB for their support and support.Read more
The future of companies
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In a year and a half of research, I worked with a small team on the future of Berlin companies.
The project was attached to the two-year research project of the Institute for Entrepreneurship, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (EMF) of the University of Economics and Law in Berlin: Innovative learning and communication concepts for corporate succession in Berlin Berlin. One of the products of this project is the website www.nachfolge-in-deutschland.de – where the final report will also be published free of charge as pdf, but it can also be purchased. And a real book is much more beautiful than a digital book...
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Future study
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Our future study focused less on communication than on the future of corporate succession. To this end, we examined the future of Berlin in a multi-stage process consisting of expert delphi, workshops, quantitative surveys and finally a scenario process.
One result is that the corporate landscape is sometimes subject to enormous processes of change. In particular, the area of corporate succession is strongly influenced by the change in values. Today, it is far from predetermined that the children of entrepreneurs will take over the company later on. For this reason, non-family takeovers will continue to increase in the future.
Demographic change is having a different impact in Berlin than in the rest of Germany. Berlin will remain the metropolis in the future and attract many skilled workers. As a result, the labour market will continue to remain tight even in higher-skilled occupations.
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If you want to receive your personal copy of the 184-page report, just send me an email.
Edition EMF - Volum
e 6 Company Succession in Berlin 2030. Change in values and the impact of social developments on company follow-up in 2030 – Is the classic family business a discontinued model?
Project Leader:
Prof. Dr. Birgit Felden
Future researcher
: Kai Gondlach, M.A
. Mira Schirrmeister, M.A
. Mischa Stähli, M.A.
Scientific collaboration:
Michael Graffius, M.A.
Laura Marwede, M.A.
ISBN 978-3-940989-15-4, 19,90 EUR
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The study is also available online on the pages of the Institute for Entrepreneurship, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (EMF) of the Berlin University of Economics and Law: View the future study at the EMF.
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Lecture: Free public transport in the Berlin House of Representatives
Today, 12. February 2014, I am invited to a panel discussion as a futurologist. It is organised by the Regional Working Group Mobility of the Green Party of Berlin. The theme is:
Free public transport - vision or utopia?
The speakers are Dr. Matthias Stoffregen (Head of Tariff and Marketing at VBB), Matthias Oomen (ProBahn e.V.), Stefan Kohte (VCD Berlin) and just me, Kai Gondlach (Future Researcher).
It starts at 7 p.m. More information about the event:
gruene-berlin.de/termine/kostenloser-öpnv-vision-oder-utopie
Update: After the event
After the opening statements of the speakers, the spokesman of the LAG Martin Kasztantowicz summed up what was said briefly and started the discussion. Many pros and cons were discussed and, as was to be expected, no result was reached that evening. The complexity of the topic has become clear to all involved, as one previously very critical participant confessed that she is now very "delighted" by the idea. I was concerned that some of the participants started a number juggling; since there was no traffic planner among them who could map the complexity of the system, this was in my m. not very constructive, as 1.) fixed sums were assumed, although these would certainly be different on day X (for example, only the turnover of the transport companies, which completely dispense with fare management in ticketless public transport and thus approx. could save 10%); 2.) man tends to be guided by numbers and believes them more as "soft" arguments. Even if the figures are incorrect, they cannot normally be verified at the moment of discussion, thus serving as a shaky basis for discussion.
I think it has become clear to all involved that the zero tariff / free public transport is not an issue that can be quickly turned under the carpet as unrealistic or implausible. On the condition that contributions are financed (local transport levy), a plausible basis for the solution seems to be in principle. Political actors in particular need to be aware of their objectives under the zero tariff; are these environmental, social and/or transport objectives?
If you only have a hammer, you see a nail in every problem. We must be careful that free public transport does not become a hammer and blur the political objectives.
The next step is therefore to prepare a comprehensive study on the subject, which will clarify the following questions:
- Is free public transport possible in Berlin (island solution) or would a larger system have to be integrated (VBB)?
- What consequences are conceivable? (Impact on the environment, cityscape,...)
- What additional push-and-pull measures would be needed to (a) maintain a sound funding base and b) incentivise the switch from MIV to public transport?
- What do citizens think of a local transport levy?
- How would mobile people behave as a result of the changeover? What does this mean for the load? How can this be reacted to in the existing network or what investments in vehicles and infrastructure might be. necessary?
- What are the legal framework conditions? To what extent must applicable law be be adapted?
Sustainability and climate change
In my studies, I worked very the topics of sustainability and climate change. Of course, I couldn't get around the most well-known research report ever written in connection with sustainability and futurology: "The Limits of Growth" (1972) by Donella and Dennis Meadows and other authors. The study was initiated by the Club of Rome, a loose association of educated people who have been thinking about the finiteness of resources and the effects of human activity at an early age.
It is astonishing that today, more than 40 years later, not everyone can do anything with the concept of sustainability. That companies pride themselves on corporate social responsibility – and thus making money while polluting rivers elsewhere. That the Federal Government awarded a CSR prize for the first time last year. And that, despite the efforts of many individual actors, there is still no global consensus that (rather than, much more importantly, how) climate change should be addressed.
Paralyzed representatives
The regularly sobering climate conferences illustrate this quite vividly. Nearly 200 nations are sending representatives to exchange words about how important they consider themselves and what personal experiences they have about climate change. Or not. As a rule, the following emerges: developing and emerging countries report rising temperatures, drought and finally food shortages. In some cases, sea levels rise and threaten coastal areas (Mauritius will soon be gone, northern Germany will follow a little later). One perceives – certainly reinforced by the ever faster and more multimedia reporting – more and more violent natural disasters, notices a change in flora and fauna. Conflicts in so-called crisis areas, the causes of which are often the effects of climate change of the first or second degree, which have just been described, are leading to ever denser refugee flows. The "First World" states are enthroned by denying climate change or discussing the meaning of renewable energies and the measures that go with it, necessary and taken far too late. This simplified causal chain could be spined much further, but the highlight is that, although it is known that greenhouse gases in particular accelerate climate change, hardly any government is willing to derive concrete and, above all, comprehensive action from it.
That's why Mr. Randers, who worked with the Meadows on the study, is questioning entire systems. Is the capitalist system capable of responding adequately to climate change? Of course not. Chapter always moves to where it is most lucrative. Is the democratic system (with the basic logic focused on short-term decisions and gaining power & /-maintaining – I am referring to Luhmann here) able to do something about it? The functioning of the policy system does not allow unpopular decisions, such as the strict sanctioning of unecological behaviour and, on the other hand, the promotion of demonstrably sustainable action. The consequences of this, it is feared, would be cuts on another side or price increases for end users, which would be unpopular in the short term and thus lead to a loss of voter support.
No improvement in sight
It would be constructive to make a proposal for an optimization of the system at this point in the discourse. A crucial point here would be the inclusion of scientifically based facts rather than popular-political opinions that serve only one purpose: maximizing individual prosperity.
When I was 27 years old and working on the limits of growth, I had a different idea of the world. There are two basic approaches to politics. Scientists collect data and then exclaim: "For heaven's sake, sea levels are rising, hurricanes are getting stronger, the patterns of wind and rainfall are complicating, climate change is taking place! So we need to reduce our greenhouse gases!"
The other attitude is: "I don't believe in climate change, because at the moment even the glaciers are spreading."
Then the scientists come and complete studies and say, "No, the glaciers are shrinking worldwide," to which the climate sceptics reply: "No matter, glaciers don't really care about me. I don't believe in climate change and I don't have to do anything, because polar bears are doing better than ever.'
Then the scientists do their job again and say: "No, the polar bears are in trouble! They are drowning! They can't find food, the ice around them disappears," to which climate sceptics reply: "You know what? I don't really care about polar bears. I don't believe in climate change, because in Washington, D.C. it snowed a lot last winter.
Dennis Meadows, author of "The Limits of Growth"
This quote impressively shows how (lobby) politics is going today. The interests of the electorate are to be safeguarded, for example the Republican side (I avoid the term "party") in the United States of America is the biggest force against the scientific sound findings. So far, not even the IPCC* has been able to change this. The denial continues cheerfully, so that world corporations can continue to exploit the soil, the sea and the people with impunity. Next stage: gene maize and multi-resistant pests.
As an optimist, I believe that the necessary rethinking is possible. Unfortunately, however, it is far too late for a U-turn that is pressing.
Comments
* The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change regularly gathers scientific findings from worldwide studies and formulates annual reports on the basis of them. The panel's statements have also coincided with those of the Club of Rome for more than 20 years.
Link tip:
+ "Last Warning", Arte-Doku, broadcast on 28. January 2013, on Youtube
Free public transport
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In my master's thesis (summer semester 2013) I dealt with a not entirely new vision: free public transport. The theme was: "Disruptive development of "free public transport": utopia or plausible future? risks and opportunities for Deutsche Bahn".
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